Credit Crunch

Our enquiries for 2009 are without doubt more buoyant than ever before; by the end of January we have more confirmed projects than we did at this point in 2008, so we’re quietly confident about the year ahead.

However, the theme for 2009 is going to be late confirmation. A pattern is emerging - the work is there with little sign of any downturn, but the commitment in the form of a signature on a contract or cheque is coming later than ever (in some cases even after the event).

Rental companies are already facing a very different environment, where asset-backed finance has all but dried up. If this means that there is less new technology flowing into rental stock, production managers may find, counterintuitively, that in recession their costs are more resistant to downward pressure.

There’s an accepted theory that the live events industry lags the economy in a recession. When people first find they can’t afford the new sofa or the Caribbean holiday, they cheer themselves up with a concert ticket. When an economy comes out of recession, they can only afford the sofa or holiday again by saving on the concert tickets. We should expect 2009 to be at least a reasonable year for the live entertainment market, but ready ourselves for a lean 2010 or 2011.

The summer of 2009 promises more outdoor events than ever, despite another expected 'shake up'. Maybe the problem is that promoters are happy to think each other should go out of business, but are less likely to accept they should retire from the competition themselves. With a crowded market, and a recession, one wonders if this year might genuinely bring the 'shake up' we've been waiting for.

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